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7351 [lbo-talk] Max's randomness persists -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 1:21 PM, Julio Huato wrote: > Are you playing gotcha with me? You are making an apples-to-oranges > comparison. Intrade is a winner-take-all judgment on a very evenly divided electorate. The polls have been almost evenly divided for months, with the lead trading back and forth. The sum of the popular vote is quite close too. That's been very stable - it's not noise. Doug

Document Size:	4941
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 10:41:35 PDT 2008

7352 [lbo-talk] Gallup trial heat -- rank: 1000

<http://www.gallup.com/poll/107089/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Both- Tie-McCain.aspx> PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 2-6, finds both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton going toe-to-toe with Republican John McCain in separate trial heats for the fall election. In both cases, the Democratic candidate receives 46% of the support of national registered voters to McCain's 45%.

Document Size:	4951
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 10:38:59 PDT 2008

7353 [lbo-talk] Adolph Reed's latest -- rank: 1000

I regret my earlier hyperbole, and my Lenin-based joke about a febrile disorder, because it's distracted from some real points. E.g.: On May 7, 2008, at 1:09 AM, Jim Straub wrote: > So I said to you yeah, I > don't think he's so amazing as some of his fans think, but I do think > he's measurably more progressive than Clinton, By what metric? Not their voting record. The NYT had a side-by-side comparison of economic proposals the other day and they were indistinguishable except for th ...

Document Size:	7205
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 10:36:27 PDT 2008

7354 [lbo-talk] world even more unequal than previously thought -- rank: 1000

Branko Milanovic, the World Bank economist who's done great work on global income distribution, reports on the basis of the latest PPP exchange rate exercise that the world income distribution is even more unequal than previously thought. Paper: <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDECINEQ/Resources/ GlobalInequality.pdf> I'd post the conclusion, but the PDF is copy-protected. Thanks to Michael Dorsey for posting the link to this paper to Debate. Doug

Document Size:	5203
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 10:17:47 PDT 2008

7355 [lbo-talk] even more Bartels -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 12:38 PM, Carrol Cox wrote: > One could make a fairly sophisticated argument that taxes on > workers are > _only_ a _method_ by which surplus value is taxed. So the appearance > Bill calls attention to (take-home pay as opposed to nominal pay) > is in > fact reality. It is a tax on profits taking the juridical form of a > tax > on the workers. Anwar Shaikh would counter that taxes on capital are ultimately paid by labor. I don't buy it, but that's what ...

Document Size:	5046
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 10:05:28 PDT 2008

7356 [lbo-talk] US elections -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 12:10 PM, James Heartfield wrote: > If I understand it right, Obama's appeal is a kind of Blairite (or > even Clintonite) transcendence of the 'old politics'. His core base > is black and young, but to show that he is of a different stripe, > he has to distance himself from race politics. Yup. Except that he's triangulating the Clintons too. > Hillary hoped to play up her experience, but that has been boxed in > to an appeal to older voters against younger, a ...

Document Size:	6065
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 10:03:37 PDT 2008

7357 [lbo-talk] Langer: exit poll analysis -- rank: 1000

<http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?idG98314&page=1> EXIT POLL: White Working-Class vs. Change in Indiana; Blacks Lift Obama to N.C. Victory Obama Wins Nearly Unanimous Support Among African-Americans in N.C. ANALYSIS By GARY LANGER May 6, 2008 A sharply divided electorate made for a close contest in Indiana, where working-class whites and controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright worked to Hillary Clinton's advantage, while liberals, new voters and the mantle of c ...

Document Size:	13042
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 07:17:19 PDT 2008

7358 [lbo-talk] more Bartels -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 9:56 AM, Marvin Gandall wrote: > I doubt Carrol and Joanna's message about "elections being a bad > way to run > a society" would make much headway with American and other working > people > who value, often passionately, the right to elect their > representatives, > much less with those peoples who still lack the right to do so. How about those first elections in South Africa, in which people waited in line for hours on end to vote? Of course, ...

Document Size:	5129
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 07:08:18 PDT 2008

7359 [lbo-talk] Max's randomness persists -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 8:53 AM, Julio Huato wrote: > No, no. I don't mean the trend in the polls. As I said, they are > noisy. People overreact to news in the short run. I mean the trend > in the overall political conditions. That's why I refer people to the > markets, where people's expectations are more stable. The markets? Stable? I'm assuming you mean this about Intrade (and Iowa) only, and not as a general proposition. But it's not even true about Intrade. PollingReport.com h ...

Document Size:	5874
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 06:45:21 PDT 2008

7360 [lbo-talk] Max's randomness persists -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 8:42 AM, sawicky at verizon.net wrote: > The primary contest is OVER. Well yeah, that's almost certain.

Document Size:	4714
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 06:08:25 PDT 2008

7361 [lbo-talk] Max's randomness persists -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 7:48 AM, Julio Huato wrote: > He can speak for himself, but it seems to me that Max's point is that > the fluctuations in the polls are largely noise. The main trend is > clear. There has been no such trend in the national polls. It's been very close for months. In fact, Obama's lead in Gallup's latest tracking poll is smaller than it was three weeks ago. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/107038/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-Clinton-46- Democratic-Nomination.aspx> The Real ...

Document Size:	5816
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 05:04:21 PDT 2008

7362 [lbo-talk] El Rushbo coments... -- rank: 1000

[via Mike Allen] The Obama campaign circulates a transcript of RUSH LIMBAUGH gloating about the latest front in OPERATION CHAOS, which was prompting Republican Hoosiers to vote Clinton: "I have ... been receiving field reports via e-mail today both at my website email address and the elrushbo at eib net dot com address, from people, commandos, operatives, reporting that they have followed orders and fulfilled their duty. Nobody's been challenged."

Document Size:	5081
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 04:28:53 PDT 2008

7363 [lbo-talk] Fwd: From Gallup.Com: Obama Beats McCain Among Jewish Voters -- rank: 1000

[a three-point narrowing ain't much after all the Wright/Farrakhan business] Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Jewish Democrats continuing to favor Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but by only a slim margin -- 50% to 43% in April, compared with 51% to 41% in March. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-Jewish- Voters.aspx>

Document Size:	5223
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 04:19:35 PDT 2008

7364 [lbo-talk] Max's randomness persists -- rank: 1000

On May 7, 2008, at 6:26 AM, Max B. Sawicky wrote: > [Ahem] That was a national poll. Latest RCP natinal average <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/> Obama ahead by 0.2. DOug

Document Size:	4810
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Wed May 7 04:10:27 PDT 2008

7365 [lbo-talk] even more Bartels -- rank: 1000

On May 6, 2008, at 10:16 PM, Bill Bartlett wrote: > A good reason to keep pointing out that the working class don't pay > income tax either, their employers do. Nonsense. Doug

Document Size:	4637
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Tue May 6 19:27:49 PDT 2008