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27151 [lbo-talk] cell phones & RDD -- rank: 1000

So the AAPORites are saying that while response rates are down, polls have apparently not lost any accuracy (which can be tested against elections). Doug

Document Size:	4635
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 21:09:35 PDT 2003

27152 [lbo-talk] Markets and the tooth fairy - Orange juice futures -- rank: 1000

Michael Pollak wrote: >Well that was a pretty monumental and embarassing misreading on my part. >But now I have a different question: what does daily temperature variation >have to do with the eventual OJ yield? I understanding how the average >seasonal temperature would affect yield. But isn't day to day variation >completely irrelevant to eventual yield? You're not thinking like a trader. If the temp is 5 degrees colder than the NWS predicts, that's a shock to expectations, an ...

Document Size:	5328
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 16:45:42 PDT 2003

27153 [lbo-talk] more RDD -- rank: 1000

Another cellphone prob: no geographic fixity. A cell phone can be anywhere, so it's impossible to get a gegraphically balanced sample. Doug

Document Size:	4525
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 15:00:52 PDT 2003

27154 [lbo-talk] more on cell phones & polling -- rank: 1000

Another AAPOR member points out that most people regard their cell phones as "socially private" lines and are especially annoyed if/when pollsters call them. The problem is more serious in Europe, where cell phone penetration rates are higher. Doug

Document Size:	4793
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 14:33:32 PDT 2003

27155 [lbo-talk] Socialism, asceticism, prudishness... -- rank: 1000

Chuck0 wrote: >This attitude that "our message is more important than the >presentation" is very on display in the Leftist press, including >such ugly publications as Z Magazine. My reply to those leftists who >dismiss spending any effort on the aesthetics of presentation is to >ask them why they even bother to edit the articles that go in their >magazines. If the ideas are so important that they can stand on >their own, why bother with editing? Someone told me onc ...

Document Size:	5294
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 13:10:39 PDT 2003

27156 [lbo-talk] Bush in crisis: an optimistic view -- rank: 1000

<http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/aug2003/bush-a02.shtml> World Socialist Web Site - August 2, 2003 BUSH PRESS CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS GOVERNMENT CRISIS By David Walsh and Barry Grey The press conference held by George W. Bush on July 30 left the unmistakable impression of an administration in crisis. Wednesday's session, held three days before the president was set to begin a month-long vacation at his Texas ranch, was just the ninth press conference of Bush's term and the first since earl ...

Document Size:	16396
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 10:37:15 PDT 2003

27157 [lbo-talk] "we are all with Uday and Qusay" -- rank: 1000

Uday and Qusay laid to rest as Saddam loyalists mourn end of an era AWJA, Iraq (AFP) - Relatives grieved for Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s sons, Uday and Qusay, and 14-year-old grandson Mustapha, in a somber funeral ceremony at the cemetery of Awja, the home village of the once mighty leader of Iraq (news - web sites), now on the run. Members of Saddam's tribe, who enjoyed the fruits of his brutal 24-year reign over the country, paid their farewells to the brothers, the 'enfants terribles' ...

Document Size:	8904
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 10:28:56 PDT 2003

27158 [lbo-talk] Socialism, asceticism, prudishness... -- rank: 1000

Michael Pugliese wrote: >Trying to remember the title of a book on strip malls, neon and the >American landscape by a contributor to Harpers or The Atlantic. You thinking of James Kunstler's The Geography of Nowhere? Doug

Document Size:	4870
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 10:19:17 PDT 2003

27159 [lbo-talk] Socialism, asceticism, prudishness... -- rank: 1000

<jbujes at covad.net> wrote: >decadent Capitalism One of the most notable features of American capitalism today is how much stunning ugliness it produces - hideous strip malls, suburban developments, etc. Wal-Mart is an organized aesthetic crime. The point was brought home to me a few years ago: a mile or two inland from the Oregon coast, surely one of the more beautiful natural landscapes on earth, I stopped at a convenience store that was made of corrugated tin. The ugliness emerges r ...

Document Size:	5445
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 08:41:51 PDT 2003

27160 [lbo-talk] cell phones & RDD -- rank: 1000

I asked the American Association for Public Opinion Research listserv what the problem was with the shift from land lines to cell phones, since cells can theoretically be reached with random digit dialing. The reason is that cell numbers aren't included in RDD generators because subscribers can be billed for incoming calls (though, these days, who ever uses up the thousands of minutes they're entitled to?). This has resulted in a loss of about 1% of potential households. Doug

Document Size:	4926
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 08:26:15 PDT 2003

27161 [lbo-talk] Hitch on Hope -- rank: 1000

Christopher Hitchens writes <<http://slate.msn.com/id/2086499/>: >Even the most determinedly fawning obituarists had to concede that most of >his movies and many of his "joke" anthologies were basically insulting in >their unfunniness. Elvis Mitchell in the New York Times, stuck with writing >an appreciation on the same day as Canby's labored obituary (and stuck by >the newspaper with the exact same vaudeville photograph as illustration) >fell back on the exh ...

Document Size:	5610
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Aug 2 08:12:20 PDT 2003

27162 [lbo-talk] in the headlines... -- rank: 1000

...according to the Weekly World News at Yahoo! <http://entertainment.tv.yahoo.com/entnews/wwn/>: Crop Circles Appearing on People's Heads! Monday July 28, 2003, Weekly World News "I Want To Have A Space Alien's Baby!" Friday July 25, 2003, Weekly World News French Hid Saddam's Nukes Under Eiffel Tower Thursday July 24, 2003, Weekly World News PARIS -- French officials collaborated with Saddam Hussein to conceal his nuclear weapons from U.N. inspectors by hiding them in the last ...

Document Size:	5769
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Aug 1 21:45:11 PDT 2003

27163 [lbo-talk] Markets and the tooth fairy - Orange juice futures -- rank: 1000

Michael Perelman wrote: >I don't think that the weather service covers conditions in Brazil, which >have a major affect on the market. No, but Weather.com does. Roll's article - which I now have sitting next to me - was about Florida, though. Doug

Document Size:	5029
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Aug 1 14:46:09 PDT 2003

27164 [lbo-talk] Goldman on MEW -- rank: 1000

>DAILY FINANCIAL MARKET COMMENT 08/01/03 Goldman Sachs Economics > >* Today's comment builds a stylized and preliminary model that >simulates the impact of higher 10-year note yields on consumer >spending via the 'mortgage equity withdrawal' (MEW) channel. MEW >encompasses cash-out refinancing, home equity loans, and >home equity extraction that occurs in the housing turnover >process. > >* We use our model to assess the potential impact of a 10-year >Treasury ...

Document Size:	6050
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Aug 1 13:16:09 PDT 2003

27165 [lbo-talk] backlash? -- rank: 1000

Miles Jackson wrote: >Don't they use random-digit dialing? That would get around the cell >phone problem. Apparently not, though I don't understand why. I'll ask the AAPOR comrades. Doug

Document Size:	4649
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Aug 1 13:10:21 PDT 2003