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20761 [lbo-talk] more polling stuff -- rank: 1000

Miles Jackson wrote: >Given the typical sampling error of 3 or 4 points, all of the poll >results Doug provided are reasonably accurate estimates of the >true population parameters here (% of votes for each candidate). >Chalk one up for probability sampling, and color me impressed. It's interesting, though, that the errors, though small, seemed biased and not random, with most polls reporting Bush ahead. Doug

Document Size:	4902
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Tue Oct 19 13:00:24 PDT 2004

20762 [lbo-talk] more polling stuff -- rank: 1000

Wojtek Sokolowski wrote: >Doug: >> average 47 45 4 2 >> >> actual 48 48 2 0 0 > >I assume that these are unweighted averages. I wonder, however, what these >averages would be if they were weighted by the sample size. Such weighting >would have the practical effect of increasing the sample size to that of the >total number of people polled in all surveys. It may ...

Document Size:	5610
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Tue Oct 19 12:03:40 PDT 2004

20763 [lbo-talk] more polling stuff -- rank: 1000

Miles Jackson wrote: >Let's be fair: we need to compare polls closer to election day to >the actual outcome to assess the accuracy of the polls. Cue Doug? Most had Bush ahead, by an average of 2 points. Ralph's final numbers were almost twice as high as they actual vote. Bush Gore Nader Buchan Bush-Gore CBS ^ 11/6 44 45 4 1 -1 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP #@ 11/6 48 46 4 1 2 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/6 47 45 4 ...

Document Size:	6832
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Tue Oct 19 11:29:48 PDT 2004

20764 [lbo-talk] Query on popular badasses -- rank: 1000

Carrol Cox wrote: >P.S. "Political passivity": Confining one's political action to voting. For someone who dilates frequently on the impossibility of psychological analysis, you seem to claim a pretty good knowledge of what people do with their lives. How do you know? Doug

Document Size:	4847
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Tue Oct 19 10:54:50 PDT 2004

20765 [lbo-talk] more polling stuff -- rank: 1000

[from MPOP, an offshoot of AAPOR, and not under the cone of silence] If you've had your doubts about the likely voter models out there in the field, this should give you slight pause. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041019/ap_on_el_pr/winning_the_new_voters&cid=694&ncid=2043 Report: Dems Register More New Voters in Swing States The AP reports that Democrats have registered more new voters than Republicans in these swing states:Arizona, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and ...

Document Size:	5983
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 20:41:36 PDT 2004

20766 [lbo-talk] FT: Britain should reject U.S. redeployment request -- rank: 1000

[though Blair isn't likely to follow this advice] Financial Times - October 19 2004 UK should reject Iraq troop request The government of Tony Blair is facing yet more political discomfort over the US request to move British troops up into central Iraq, where overstretched American forces have so far been unable to bring the spreading insurgency in the so-called Sunni triangle under control. Under present circumstances, it is not at all clear this redeployment would help stabilise Iraq. The requ ...

Document Size:	7848
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 19:47:29 PDT 2004

20767 [lbo-talk] poliitical gossip -- rank: 1000

<http://www.nypost.com/seven/10162004/gossip/31853.htm> October 16, 2004 -- DEMOCRATS really are more open-minded about sex than Republicans. Take Kimberly Newsom, attractive Court TV anchor wife of handsome San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. When her husband couldn't make it as scheduled to speak at Thursday night's Empire State Pride Agenda dinner at the Sheraton, the year's biggest gay rights fund-raiser, Kimberly filled in for him. She was eloquent and uplifting as she spoke of equality ...

Document Size:	5674
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 19:27:21 PDT 2004

20768 [lbo-talk] early voting begins in Fla, kinda messy -- rank: 1000

[evidently all these people haven't heard of what a distraction voting is] Early Voting for President Begins with 'Hiccups' By Michael Christie MIAMI (Reuters) - Early voting for the U.S. presidential election began in Florida on Monday as activists urged people to opt for early ballots to avoid a repeat of the 2000 election fiasco, but computer problems and long lines soon emerged. With memories still fresh of 2000, when the race in the key battleground state was so close it triggered weeks of ...

Document Size:	8733
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 13:55:55 PDT 2004

20769 [lbo-talk] this'n'that -- rank: 1000

snit snat wrote: >http://www.uww.edu/npa/cities/ >America's most literatre cities Pretty funny. NYC, right there between Virginia Beach & Shreveport.

Document Size:	4598
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 13:24:24 PDT 2004

20770 [lbo-talk] Query on popular badasses -- rank: 1000

Carrol Cox wrote: >This is abstractly true but stupidly trivial. Do you talk to people like this in real life, or just on the internet? Doug

Document Size:	4710
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 13:02:56 PDT 2004

20771 [lbo-talk] Sinclair -- rank: 1000

Sinclair Broadcasting stock is getting hammered today over their broadcast of the anti-Kerry documentary. Must be fear of ad boycott. The chart is lovely: <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SBGI&d=b>. Doug

Document Size:	4673
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 12:22:11 PDT 2004

20772 [lbo-talk] Fwd: Polling below 50% going into the election -- rank: 1000

[full story at <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/complete/la-na-fifty18oct18,1,6292808.story>] Polls Put Bush on the Edge * The president leads most surveys, but hovering at 50% leaves him little room for error. By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote and his job approval in ...

Document Size:	9321
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 11:56:55 PDT 2004

20773 [lbo-talk] Query on popular badasses -- rank: 1000

Wojtek Sokolowski wrote: >Doug replied: >> Or, in the words of a dead theocratic reactionary: "Humankind cannot >> bear very much reality." >> > >I am not talking about preferring illusions to reality. Nor am I. But "reality" is full of messiness and contradictions. We all have our systematic blind spots that help us make sense of reality, but some of us are more likely to filter out contradictions and textures than others. Doug

Document Size:	5056
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 11:52:01 PDT 2004

20774 [lbo-talk] Class Action: The Million Worker March, October 17 -- rank: 1000

Leigh Meyers wrote: > >>The Black commentator > >Who, by the way, thinks that voting for Kerry is an imperative, >expressed in very very strong terms ><http://www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Radio.html#040930>. > >Doug >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > >Hmmm... I'm not sensing that from what this says. >It sounds more like they'll vote for Kerry and then look for a >place to vomit. Here's an excerpt from what Ford said (starting around 8 minutes into the intervie ...

Document Size:	6230
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 11:33:39 PDT 2004

20775 [lbo-talk] Query on popular badasses -- rank: 1000

Wojtek Sokolowski wrote: >Disciplinarian populist rituals are popular because of the cognitive setup >of human mind. People need to cognitively establish order and meaning in the >world to be able to function. Or, in the words of a dead theocratic reactionary: "Humankind cannot bear very much reality." Doug

Document Size:	4869
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Mon Oct 18 09:32:14 PDT 2004