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20566 [lbo-talk] O'Reilly vs NY Mag -- rank: 1000

<http://www.gawker.com/topic/convention-aftermath-ii-roshan-vs-oreilly-020775.php> SEP 03 2004 Convention Aftermath II: Roshan Vs. O'Reilly The post-RNC nuclear fallout continues and we just figured how TOTALLY liberal New York media is after this week. We've received reports of Fox News' mascot Bill O'Reilly discontent with New York magazine's special convention editor Maer Roshan over the images of Republicans as chosen by the magazine's art department <http://www.nymetro.com/rnc/gopc ...

Document Size:	12149
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Sep 4 09:31:22 PDT 2004

20567 [lbo-talk] Excellent analysis of Time Poll -- rank: 1000

Here's a comment from the guy who supervised the poll (with some formatting oddities cleaned up). Doug ---- From: Mark Schulman Subject: Time Magazine Poll: Additional Comments I wanted to comment on our Time Magazine Republican Convention Poll, released yesterday. As you know, the poll finds that Bush had an 11 point lead over Kerry, 52-41 among likely voters. We interviewed during the Republican convention, Tuesday thru Thursday, not post-convention. To quote our favorite line, *polls are a ...

Document Size:	7456
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Sat Sep 4 09:17:12 PDT 2004

20568 [lbo-talk] Teixeira on the Time poll etc -- rank: 1000

<http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/> September 3, 2004 How High the Bounce? It must be stressed that at this point: we don't know. Measurements of a candidate's bounce should be based on polls taken before and after a convention. So far we have no such data--in fact, tonight will be the first night where polling can be conducted that is truly after the completeion of the GOP convention. Therefore, we won't have real bounce data for several days. That said, let us ...

Document Size:	9102
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 20:52:31 PDT 2004

20569 [lbo-talk] more polling stuff -- rank: 1000

An AAPORite writes: >The biggest problem with the Time poll is that it was entirely conducted >while the Republican convention was taking place and dominating the >daily news, which would certainly be expected to bias the sample. > >For comparison, the only national presidential poll that I could find >that was conducted at any time during the Democratic convention in July >was a Newsweek poll from Princeton Survey Associates that began >interviewing on the last day of th ...

Document Size:	5199
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 15:37:10 PDT 2004

20570 [lbo-talk] Time: Bush has 11-point lead -- rank: 1000

By the way, the Time poll is of likely voters; the American Research Group poll, of registered voters. It's not easy to project who the likely voters are, especially this year. The standard technique is to assign each person in the sample a voting likelihood (based on demographics and past behavior), then rank the sample on the basis of likelihood, then cut exclude those below a certain likelihood based on projected voter turnout. But predicting turnout is very tricky. Doug

Document Size:	5015
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 14:43:09 PDT 2004

20571 [lbo-talk] another poll... -- rank: 1000

http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/ John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say t ...

Document Size:	6109
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 14:36:53 PDT 2004

20572 [lbo-talk] yeah, but he's 11 points ahead -- rank: 1000

<http://www.majorityreportradio.com/weblog/archives/Bush%20-%20Tribal%20Sovereignty.mp3>

Document Size:	4714
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 14:35:43 PDT 2004

20573 [lbo-talk] Time: Bush has 11-point lead -- rank: 1000

<http://www.time.com/time/press_releases> Friday, Sep. 03, 2004 Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader New York: For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vot ...

Document Size:	8333
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 14:13:16 PDT 2004

20574 [lbo-talk] Pleasure Boat Captains for Truth -- rank: 1000

Wojtek Sokolowski wrote: > > Truth is, Bush has a low tolerance for alcohol: >> <http://www.pleasurecaptains.com/low.html>. > > >The damned thing crashes my browser every time I try to open it. Is >that some kind of a joke? Worked for me - it's a QuickTime movie.

Document Size:	4988
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 14:11:48 PDT 2004

20575 [lbo-talk] Pleasure Boat Captains for Truth -- rank: 1000

Truth is, Bush has a low tolerance for alcohol: <http://www.pleasurecaptains.com/low.html>.

Document Size:	4740
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Fri Sep 3 12:47:56 PDT 2004

20576 [lbo-talk] Don't Just Vote, Take Action - Report from UFPJ Marc h, August 29, 2004 -- rank: 1000

Chuck0 wrote: >the UFPJ elite For god's sake - they organized a march under incredibly difficult circumstances that turned out hundreds of thousands. How many people could Don't Just Vote turn out? And would they all show up at the same time and place? Doug

Document Size:	5304
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Thu Sep 2 16:48:54 PDT 2004

20577 [lbo-talk] media birdbrains -- rank: 1000

Carrol Cox wrote: >Mao's slogan does not work in civil society. It only works in a movement >grounded in a modern equivalent of the Athenian deme. So once in power, did Mao trust the people? And why did his revolution end in capiatlism? Doug

Document Size:	4689
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Thu Sep 2 16:39:16 PDT 2004

20578 [lbo-talk] wanna protest? there's a net waiting for you -- rank: 1000

[Every police department around is going to imitate this now - pre-emptive arrest and zero tolerance of any kind of unscheduled protest. Sucks.] Anti-Bush Protesters Held, NY Courts Clogged By Grant McCool NEW YORK (Reuters) - About 200 activists swarmed into Grand Central Station on Thursday, hung banners and chanted "Fight AIDS (news - web sites), not war" on the day President Bush (news - web sites) ends the Republican convention by accepting its nomination for another term. Police ...

Document Size:	8395
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Thu Sep 2 16:23:48 PDT 2004

20579 [lbo-talk] MoveOn v. Bush -- rank: 1000

Nathan Newman wrote: > A reverse >analysis is to see the last month as a massive defeat for the Bush forces Financial Times - September 2, 2004 Kerry has lost control of his own campaign By Richard Medley Imagine - a US campaign advertisement aired just before the November 3 US presidential election closes with the simple statement, "John Kerry: Liar, Traitor, Opportunist". Harsh? Excessive? Perhaps, but a series of historic mistakes by Mr Kerry's campaign has allowed the Swift ...

Document Size:	10034
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Thu Sep 2 16:07:25 PDT 2004

20580 [lbo-talk] Re: biz ethics/slavery/groups/constitutional -- rank: 1000

Miles Jackson wrote: >So if you value social diversity, in general, you don't want >to live in a small hunting & gathering tribe. And if you lust after an iPod, you probably shouldn't either.

Document Size:	4898
Author:	Doug Henwood
Date:	Thu Sep 2 16:03:03 PDT 2004